Coffee Shop
in Austin.
This scenario earns an operating margin, but ramp losses and pre-opening spending leave launch payments unrecovered within 60 months. A paid replacement manager is included.
This is a city planning case, not a Texas average. Local sources are combined with national prices and explicit assumptions.
Capital including operating reserve and undrawn contingency.
$567 normalised monthly EBIT
166 transactions/day for EBIT break-even
Conditional result · source-checked inputs do not validate demand.
One specific operating format.
- Leased footprint
- 1,000 sq ft
- Seats
- 20
- Service
- Counter-service espresso and bought-in light food
- Trading schedule
- 26 days/month · 8 service hours/day
Leased food-compatible wet retail space; power, water and drainage upgrades within a provisional renovation allowance. No on-site baking or hot production kitchen.
One staffed two-person service line × 30 transactions/hour × 8 hours = 240 transactions/day. This is a testable operating assumption; it is not the espresso manufacturer's guaranteed throughput.
No drive-through, alcohol or delivery platform. No gratuities assumed. Local approval may still require food-service plumbing and grease controls.
Published items include equipment offers, selected menu prices, May 2025 wage benchmarks and scoped government fees. Daily demand, achieved check, site condition, paid roster and unquoted expenses are assumptions. All three research records remain partial.
Test the plan before trusting the headline.
Downside, Base and Upside change conditions of this same format. They are authored scenarios, not measured probabilities or confidence intervals.
Price anchors: S046 · S047
Asking rent context: S062 · S063 · S064 · S065 · S066
Changing these fields does not transform assumptions into local observations.
Calculated planning scenario. Full paid team; no tips. Mature results use normalised annual payroll and renewal expenses, with month-12 depreciation. Year 1 below follows the ramp and cash schedule. Monetary headlines round to whole dollars; exports retain cents.
Fund the launch and the slow months.
| Use of funds | USD |
|---|---|
| Design, legal and accounting setup allowanceAssumption | $5,000 |
| Seating, retail fixtures and smallwares allowanceAssumption | $6,500 |
| POS, network and hardware setup allowanceAssumption | $2,000 |
| Pre-opening manager time and team training allowance, employer costs includedAssumption | $16,000 |
| Branding and signage allowance, installed and tax inclusiveAssumption | $3,500 |
| Launch marketing allowanceAssumption | $2,000 |
| Refundable utility deposits allowanceAssumption | $1,500 |
| Insurance during two months of pre-opening worksAssumption | $500 |
| Utility use during pre-opening worksAssumption | $400 |
| Required LLC state formation feesPublished input | $300 |
| Scoped initial food/local feesPublished input | $1,326 |
| Additional approvals and food-safety training allowanceAssumption | $1,500 |
| Renovation and installation allowanceAssumption | $55,000 |
| Equipment basket, estimated sales tax and fixtures taxInputs + assumptions | $23,378 |
| Refundable lease depositAssumption | $6,667 |
| Rent during pre-opening worksAssumption | $6,667 |
| Opening ingredients and consumablesAssumption | $1,500 |
| Total payments before openingRefundable deposits and opening stock are assets, not operating expenses. | $133,737 |
$133,737 pre-opening payments
+ $43,762 operating cash reserve
+ $11,392 undrawn works/equipment contingency
Reserve has a reason.
$43,762 = $28,762 maximum cumulative operating deficit + $15,000 cash floor. The deepest modeled deficit occurs in month 5.
The additional 15% contingency on construction and equipment stays in cash until used; this scenario assumes no draw. Funding includes it, while payback excludes unspent reserves. Two months of pre-opening rent cover works before M1; the deposit is separate.
Rent basis: S062 · S063 · S064 · S065 · S066
Scoped permits: S055 · S056 · S057 · S058 · S060
Does the paid business support itself?
| Revenue and expense | Amount |
|---|---|
| Net revenue170 transactions/day × 26 days × $7.50; tax excluded. | $33,150 |
| Ingredients, consumables and waste30% of net revenue; recipe cost not measured. | -$9,945 |
| Card processing90% card share; 2.6% of tax-inclusive processed sales + $0.15 per payment; 1 transactions/payment. | -$1,436 |
| Cash wages | -$12,488 |
| Employer taxes, benefits and workers compensationBenefits 6% and workers compensation 1.5% are unquoted allowances. Tax uses each employee’s annual wage base. | -$1,987 |
| Base rent + NNN$2,500 base + $833 additional rent. | -$3,333 |
| Other operating expenses | -$2,330 |
| Annual renewals, normalised monthly | -$77 |
| EBITDABefore depreciation, financing and income taxes. | $1,553 |
| Depreciation at month 12Straight-line assets; reinvestment cohorts included. | -$986 |
| Operating profit (EBIT)Not an owner distribution. | $567 |
Two break-even thresholds.
EBITDA break-even: $30,785 net revenue/month, or 4,105 whole transactions.
EBIT break-even: $32,286 net revenue/month, or 4,305 whole transactions.
Analytical fixed costs ÷ contribution per unit, before monthly ledger rounding. A whole-day target rounds daily throughput upward. The target fits the stated capacity; customer demand still needs validation.
Owner labor is already paid.
The team includes $5,000/month gross replacement-manager pay. If the owner performs that role, this is labor compensation already included in costs. Normalised EBIT of $567 is the residual project result, not guaranteed spendable owner cash.
Payroll treats the replacement as an employee. An owner’s actual payroll and tax treatment depends on entity/tax status and is outside this project comparison.
Other operating costs, item by item
- Electricity, water and internet allowance: $650/month
- Business insurance allowance (workers compensation is in payroll): $250/month
- Ongoing marketing allowance: $400/month
- Software subscriptions allowance: $180/month
- Accounting and professional services allowance: $250/month
- Repairs and maintenance expense allowance: $200/month
- Waste, pest control and cleaning supplies allowance: $250/month
- Business property tax and miscellaneous operating allowance: $150/month
The first year is not twelve mature months.
From profit to cash
| EBIT | -$26,714 |
| Add back depreciation | $11,610 |
| Add normalised renewal expense | $927 |
| Subtract actual renewal cash payments | -$0 |
| Subtract change in operating working capitalReceivables plus inventory; positive increases use cash. | -$2,810 |
| Subtract equipment reinvestment purchases | -$2,400 |
| Project cash generated after reinvestmentBefore financing, income taxes and owner distributions. | -$19,387 |
Opening inventory is paid in U₀, then consumed or carried forward. Purchases = COGS + ending stock − beginning stock. Assumed customer settlement lag is 2 days; target stock is 7 days of cost. No supplier credit. Payroll taxes are set aside when accrued; actual remittance timing is not modeled.
What is deliberately held constant?
Prices, staffing and cost rates stay at the disclosed planning basis for 60 months. Ramp changes demand; it does not silently remove paid staff. No measured seasonality, inflation or future tax forecast is asserted.
Equipment reinvestment is modeled as $200 of paid additions per month, depreciated over 60 months. Repair expenses are separate. An actual replacement plan, asset retirements and terminal value require equipment condition and a longer model.
Inventory is a fungible cost balance; spoilage is within the COGS allowance, not a shelf-life simulation. Sales-tax collections are ring-fenced and never fund the project.
Can the project recover its pre-opening payments?
Not within 60 months. Cumulative cash starts at −$133,737. Positive recovery must remain positive through month 60; neither refundable deposit recovery nor sale value is assumed.
Swipe horizontally on a narrow screen to follow all 60 months. The table below contains the same cash series.
Inspect all 60 months and the cash balance
| Month | Sales | EBIT | ΔNWC | Net cash | Cash balance | Project recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $14,918 | -$11,686 | $439 | -$11,299 | $43,856 | -$145,036 |
| 2 | $19,890 | -$8,379 | $646 | -$8,196 | $35,660 | -$153,232 |
| 3 | $23,868 | -$5,641 | $517 | -$5,325 | $30,335 | -$158,557 |
| 4 | $27,183 | -$3,352 | $431 | -$2,946 | $27,389 | -$161,504 |
| 5 | $29,835 | -$1,491 | $345 | -$996 | $26,392 | -$162,500 |
| 6 | $31,824 | -$188 | $259 | $396 | $26,788 | -$162,104 |
| 7 | $33,150 | $679 | $172 | $1,353 | $28,141 | -$160,751 |
| 8 | $33,150 | $676 | $0 | $1,525 | $29,667 | -$159,225 |
| 9 | $33,150 | $672 | $0 | $1,525 | $31,192 | -$157,700 |
| 10 | $33,150 | $669 | $0 | $1,525 | $32,717 | -$156,175 |
| 11 | $33,150 | $666 | $0 | $1,525 | $34,243 | -$154,649 |
| 12 | $33,150 | $662 | $0 | $1,525 | $35,768 | -$153,124 |
| 13 | $33,150 | $247 | $0 | $186 | $35,954 | -$152,938 |
| 14 | $33,150 | $288 | $0 | $1,158 | $37,112 | -$151,780 |
| 15 | $33,150 | $414 | $0 | $1,287 | $38,399 | -$150,493 |
| 16 | $33,150 | $526 | $0 | $1,403 | $39,802 | -$149,090 |
| 17 | $33,150 | $646 | $0 | $1,525 | $41,328 | -$147,564 |
| 18 | $33,150 | $642 | $0 | $1,525 | $42,853 | -$146,039 |
| 19 | $33,150 | $639 | $0 | $1,525 | $44,378 | -$144,514 |
| 20 | $33,150 | $636 | $0 | $1,525 | $45,904 | -$142,988 |
| 21 | $33,150 | $632 | $0 | $1,525 | $47,429 | -$141,463 |
| 22 | $33,150 | $629 | $0 | $1,525 | $48,954 | -$139,938 |
| 23 | $33,150 | $626 | $0 | $1,525 | $50,480 | -$138,412 |
| 24 | $33,150 | $622 | $0 | $1,525 | $52,005 | -$136,887 |
| 25 | $33,150 | $207 | $0 | $186 | $52,191 | -$136,701 |
| 26 | $33,150 | $248 | $0 | $1,158 | $53,350 | -$135,543 |
| 27 | $33,150 | $374 | $0 | $1,287 | $54,637 | -$134,256 |
| 28 | $33,150 | $486 | $0 | $1,403 | $56,039 | -$132,853 |
| 29 | $33,150 | $606 | $0 | $1,525 | $57,565 | -$131,327 |
| 30 | $33,150 | $602 | $0 | $1,525 | $59,090 | -$129,802 |
| 31 | $33,150 | $599 | $0 | $1,525 | $60,615 | -$128,277 |
| 32 | $33,150 | $596 | $0 | $1,525 | $62,141 | -$126,751 |
| 33 | $33,150 | $592 | $0 | $1,525 | $63,666 | -$125,226 |
| 34 | $33,150 | $589 | $0 | $1,525 | $65,191 | -$123,701 |
| 35 | $33,150 | $586 | $0 | $1,525 | $66,717 | -$122,175 |
| 36 | $33,150 | $582 | $0 | $1,525 | $68,242 | -$120,650 |
| 37 | $33,150 | $167 | $0 | $186 | $68,428 | -$120,464 |
| 38 | $33,150 | $208 | $0 | $1,158 | $69,587 | -$119,305 |
| 39 | $33,150 | $334 | $0 | $1,287 | $70,874 | -$118,018 |
| 40 | $33,150 | $446 | $0 | $1,403 | $72,276 | -$116,616 |
| 41 | $33,150 | $566 | $0 | $1,525 | $73,802 | -$115,090 |
| 42 | $33,150 | $562 | $0 | $1,525 | $75,327 | -$113,565 |
| 43 | $33,150 | $559 | $0 | $1,525 | $76,853 | -$112,040 |
| 44 | $33,150 | $556 | $0 | $1,525 | $78,378 | -$110,514 |
| 45 | $33,150 | $552 | $0 | $1,525 | $79,903 | -$108,989 |
| 46 | $33,150 | $549 | $0 | $1,525 | $81,429 | -$107,464 |
| 47 | $33,150 | $546 | $0 | $1,525 | $82,954 | -$105,938 |
| 48 | $33,150 | $542 | $0 | $1,525 | $84,479 | -$104,413 |
| 49 | $33,150 | $127 | $0 | $186 | $84,665 | -$104,227 |
| 50 | $33,150 | $168 | $0 | $1,158 | $85,824 | -$103,068 |
| 51 | $33,150 | $294 | $0 | $1,287 | $87,111 | -$101,781 |
| 52 | $33,150 | $406 | $0 | $1,403 | $88,514 | -$100,379 |
| 53 | $33,150 | $526 | $0 | $1,525 | $90,039 | -$98,853 |
| 54 | $33,150 | $522 | $0 | $1,525 | $91,564 | -$97,328 |
| 55 | $33,150 | $519 | $0 | $1,525 | $93,090 | -$95,802 |
| 56 | $33,150 | $516 | $0 | $1,525 | $94,615 | -$94,277 |
| 57 | $33,150 | $512 | $0 | $1,525 | $96,140 | -$92,752 |
| 58 | $33,150 | $509 | $0 | $1,525 | $97,666 | -$91,226 |
| 59 | $33,150 | $506 | $0 | $1,525 | $99,191 | -$89,701 |
| 60 | $33,150 | $502 | $0 | $1,525 | $100,716 | -$88,176 |
Every required role has a cost.
Six days/week, eight service hours/day. Three baristas cover 96 hours/week (two positions during service); manager adds 40 hours/week for purchasing, administration, relief and peaks. 3.4 paid FTE equivalents; 4 people. Headcount, hours and hiring rates are assumptions.
| Role / benchmark | People | Hours / person / week | Cash pay / person | Loaded annual role cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Store manager / owner replacementSOC 11-9051 · S001 | 1 | 40 | $60,000/year | $69,375 |
| Baristas and counter staffSOC 35-3023 · S005 | 3 | 32 | $18.00/hour | $104,324 |
Wage references are May 2025 metro distributions from BLS via O*NET. BLS wages include tips and exclude employer benefits; no-tip hiring pay remains a planning choice (S095). Chosen hiring rates are September 2026 planning assumptions, not current job offers. Required food-manager coverage must include qualified relief beyond the manager’s own 40 hours. Benefits and workers-compensation percentages need quotes.
A priced basket, with the gaps visible.
Quantities are chosen for discussion. The model assumes these movable assets must be bought. Remove any item only after confirming usable equipment is conveyed with the lease.
| Item / configuration | Chosen qty | Unit price | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espresso machineNuova Simonelli Appia Life Compact Volumetric2group. An alternative configuration to the alternative Estella ECEM2 espresso machine; never add both. Installation, water quality solution and commissioning scope must be compared. | 1 | $7,600.00 | Published input |
| Espresso grinderNuova Simonelli MDJ On Demand. Decaf/batch grinder depends on menu,not included. | 1 | $2,550.00 | Published input |
| Espresso water-filter kitNuova Simonelli FILTERKT1. Water test and sizing required;not a guarantee sufficient treatment. Cartridge replacement OPEX separate. | 1 | $350.00 | Published input |
| Milk undercounter refrigeratorAtosa AUR27SD. Use currentAUR27SD,not retiredMGF8401GR. Whole-shop cold capacity still needs menu/delivery quantities. | 1 | $1,429.00 | Published input |
| Batch coffee brewerBunn VP17-1SS13300.0001. Menu-dependent optional. Decanter,filters and batch grinder not priced here. | 1 | $472.00 | Published input |
| Optional ice machineManitowoc UDP0140A161B. One vendor only. Distinct from olderUDF0140A. Capacity depends on test conditions;size using peak iced drink demand and ambient temperature,not seats alone. | 1 | $2,780.00 | Published input |
| Three-compartment sinkAdvance Tabco 9-3-54-18RL. Faucet sold separately. Existing sink conveyed and suitable => new sink quantity0. | 1 | $2,457.57 | Published input |
| Dry prep work tableRegency600T2448GC. Quantity assumption. Not automatic substitute for heat-rated griddle stand. | 1 | $209.99 | Published input |
| Second grinder, handwash sink, faucets, pastry display, shelves and accessoriesUnquoted ancillary hardware allowance. Main grinder already priced; this allowance includes a separate decaf grinder. Batch coffee uses pre-ground supply. No duplicate espresso machine, new hood or dishwasher. | 1 | $3,100.00 | Assumption |
What sits outside these merchandise prices?
Renovation allowance: $55/sq ft across 1,000 sq ft. Intended scope: modest finishes, layout adjustments, quoted-item connections, delivery/handling, and inspection/repair of retained infrastructure. No new hood, structural works, major HVAC, utility-capacity upgrade or goodwill purchase. The allowance is unquoted; an incompatible site invalidates it.
Furniture/smallwares and POS are separate allowances. Published furniture sets and a $299 Square Terminal are reference components inside these allowances; they are not added twice. Allowances include additional fixtures, network/order hardware and unpriced accessories. Food, stock and staff training have their own lines.
Equipment sales tax is estimated by item; Florida local surtax cap is applied where relevant. Installation and tax classification still need an actual invoice. The contingency is separate undrawn cash.
The address can change this answer.
Lease and premises
$30 base and $10 NNN per SF/year are explicit coffee-site planning allowances, informed by Austin asking listings. No 1,000 SF café lease is selected, and ordinary retail availability does not prove food-service approval.
Scoped permits
Same provisional Austin remodel route and $150,000+ food-sales tier as the restaurant case: $927 annual food permit + $178 pre-opening + $221 remodel review = $1,326. An additional $1,500 allowance covers unquoted address-specific approvals and training. Limited food scope does not establish exemption.
Close the material gaps before using this as your budget.
- A site and a signed cost scope
Lease, NNN reconciliation, equipment ownership, approved seats and contractor quote.
- Demand at the planned price
Daypart observations, conversion, menu mix, price testing and repeat visits. Capacity and traffic counts are not customer demand.
- A quoted operating plan
Supplier recipes, staffed shifts and relief, insurance, utilities, benefits and approval timing.
Idea Score, State Fit and investment confidence: not scored. Source counts measure documentation, not the chance of success.
Turn the test into a site-specific plan.
Replace rent, contractor scope, menu mix and staffing with your own evidence. Then extend the cash schedule to financing, taxes, owner distributions and actual equipment replacement.